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2024-12-14 01:11:24

CITIC Securities: In 2025, the performance boom cycle of the US Internet sector is expected to continue. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, looking forward to 2025, the macro resilience will continue, and the superimposed GenAI technology will continue to be introduced. The performance boom cycle of the US Internet sector is expected to continue, which is reflected in online advertising, e-commerce, streaming media, local life, financial technology and other sectors. However, the Trump administration's tariff increase & industry regulatory policies, inflation data, AI technology progress, etc. are expected to be continuous disturbance variables and need to be closely watched. At the level of individual stocks, the first-line Internet giants will still be the basic allocation. At the same time, we suggest that investors appropriately increase the allocation of small and medium-sized stocks in the fields of advertising technology and financial technology to enhance portfolio flexibility.With the general election approaching, German Chancellor Angela Scholz supports reducing the value-added tax on basic groceries. German Chancellor Angela Scholz said in an interview on the evening of December 10th local time that he was in favor of reducing the value-added tax on basic groceries from 7% to 5% to help low-income families cope with inflation. The center-left leader also said that although the opposition Conservative Party has a big lead in the polls, he is confident of winning the early election on February 23rd.Guotai Junan's annual strategy for innovative drugs in 2025: innovative pharmaceutical companies have accelerated into the harvest period, and the valuation has been at a historical low in the past five years. Guotai Junan said that the centralized purchasing policy has become stable, mature and normalized, and the marginal impact has weakened. Innovative drugs have gained policy inclination in the medical insurance negotiation. In the past two years, the policy has continued to promote pharmaceutical innovation, and the top-level design and local supporting chain support the development of innovative drugs. Commercial insurance is expected to bring new growth momentum to China's pharmaceutical market, and the overall industry trend is upward. At present, the trend of innovative drug industry is improving, the supply continues to accelerate, and a number of domestic innovative drugs are approved soon, which is expected to drive a new round of heavy volume. At the same time, the commercialization has achieved remarkable results and has occupied a dominant position in some sub-sectors. Pharma's performance continued to differentiate, and innovative drugs and just-needed drugs performed well. Biotech commercialization continues to increase, per capita yield continues to increase, the node of turning losses is approaching, and innovation ushers in the harvest period. Horizontal comparison: compared with overseas peers, the overall valuation of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies is in a historically low range; Vertical comparison: the valuation of SW- pharmaceutical biology and SW- chemical preparations is at a historical low in the past five years, and it is expected that the valuation of subsequent sectors will pick up.


ADB lowered the growth forecast of developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region to maintain China's economic growth forecast. On December 11th, the Asian Development Bank issued the Asia Development Outlook 2024 (December Edition). According to the report, the development momentum in the Asia-Pacific region is steady, but as US President-elect Trump is about to take office, changes in his trade, finance and immigration policies may inhibit the development of the Asia-Pacific region and aggravate inflation. ADB lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region from the previous 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024, and from the previous 4.9% to 4.8% in 2025. China's economic growth is expected to remain at 4.8% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, which is the same as before.Syrian opposition forces claimed to have taken control of the eastern Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor. According to Al Jazeera and Arabiya TV, on the 10th local time, Hassan Abdel Ghani, commander of Syrian opposition forces, said that "the eastern Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor has been completely controlled".Huatai Securities: The expected recovery and fundamental stabilization of the real estate market are expected to accelerate under the policy blessing. Huatai Securities Research Report said that on December 9, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting, stressing that it would "implement more active and promising macro policies" and pointed out that it would "stabilize the property market and stock market". Since the end of September, continuous favorable policies have supported fundamental improvement. The central government reiterated its support for real estate at key meetings, which means that there may be more room for policy support next year, and a more relaxed environment is expected to consolidate this improvement trend. The expected repair and fundamental stabilization of the real estate market are expected to accelerate under the blessing of policies. In the follow-up, we should still pay attention to the sustainability of market volume and price recovery and the progress of macro-support policies, purchasing and storage, urban village reconstruction and other policies. Before confirming the bottom of the market, we are more optimistic about housing enterprises with more resources and stable operation in core cities; At the same time, property management companies with resilient performance and stable cash flow are also expected to benefit from the market's stabilization.


Haitong Securities: In 2025, the retail sales of home appliances terminals are expected to increase in volume and price. Haitong Securities reported in its research report on December 10th that the effect of the trade-in policy is remarkable. With the active actions of the central and local governments, the trade-in policy of home appliances is expected to continue in 2025. We judge that the retail sales of home appliances terminals are expected to increase in volume and price in 2025, and the domestic sales revenue of leading enterprises is expected to achieve steady growth. The average sales price of home appliances will increase significantly under the impetus of trade-in, and the profit margin of home appliance enterprises can be expected to increase. Under the downward trend of interest rates, the dividend yield of household appliances leading enterprises is still attractive. It is recommended that white and black electricity leading enterprises which have obviously benefited from the trade-in policy and have global competitiveness.Vanke: It received a loan of 1.05 billion yuan from the Postal Savings Bank. On December 10th, Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. (Vanke A, 000002.SZ) issued an announcement on providing guarantee for bank loans. According to the announcement, Vanke recently applied for a loan from Shenzhen Luohu Sub-branch of Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Postal Savings Bank"), with a total loan principal of RMB 1.05 billion, and subsequent companies will make withdrawals according to business needs. The holding subsidiaries of the Company provide corresponding mortgage and pledge guarantee for the relevant loans respectively, and at the same time, the holding subsidiaries, as co-borrower, undertake repayment obligations together with the Company. After this guarantee, the total external guarantee of the company and its holding subsidiaries will be 118.673 billion yuan, accounting for 4.732% of the company's audited net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies at the end of 2023.Navigation warning! Sea shooting test in the southern Yellow Sea, according to the website of China Maritime Safety Administration, Lianyungang Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 8: 00 to 14: 00 on December 11, some sea areas in the southern Yellow Sea were fired with live ammunition, and it was forbidden to enter.

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